How many priced signals finished positive.
Win rate excludes immature windows and should be read with sample size and benchmark context.
Track record
Performance context with unfinished outcomes visible.
Replitrade reports signal outcomes with benchmark context, average win/loss, expectancy, and counts for signals that are still immature or stale.
Historical and replay metrics are research context only and do not predict future returns.
+8.0%
Example expectancy
20d window
Win rateTracked
BenchmarkSPY
ImmatureCounted
Outcome health
priced | immature | stale | benchmark comparison | source
Plain-language metrics
What the track record means.
Performance data is useful only when the denominator is visible. The public product explains which signals are mature, which are still waiting, and which should not be counted as priced outcomes.
The size of mature winners and losers.
A high win rate can still be weak if losses are larger than wins, so both sides are shown.
Average return per priced signal window.
Expectancy combines win frequency and magnitude. It is context, not a forecast.
Signal return versus a market reference.
Benchmark lift helps separate broad market movement from signal-specific performance.
Published but not old enough to score.
These remain visible so recent signals are not silently treated as wins or losses.
Signals that could not be priced cleanly.
Stale counts make data gaps and skipped outcomes visible instead of hiding them.
Subscriber trust
The public feed shows the current record before subscription.
Public visitors can inspect the same kinds of fields a subscriber should care about: score, confidence tier, status, evidence count, risk note, ledger proof, and track-record context.